There has been a lot of hubbub and speculation about HTML 5 and web standards bringing on the demise of Microsoft Silverlight. The Future of Silverlight from the Microsoft Silverlight Team really sheds the light on the misguided technologist who follow every new technology revelation like lemmings without any real clear analysis or basis in fact. After all, how can one argue against a standard? It’s heresy I dare say. It all comes down to standards versus innovation. I think the argument is analogous to socialism versus capitalism.

Already there are those embracing the HTML 5 standard such as Apple. As a result Apple is refusing to allow plug-ins such as Silverlight and Flash, waving web standards as justification. This will be their demise in the market. Their utopian mantra flies in the face of what users and the market crave. User experience. The reality is that Apple’s motives are less utopian and more capitalistic in nature. If Apple can control the standards, the operating system, the software, and the hardware in their products, then they can better control their cost to market. It reduces complexity in innovation but also limits innovation to one way of thinking. I believe that open source and standards movements actually attempt to stifle innovation in order to gain conformity. They do this by waving the standards banner. When it comes down to it, there is a reason why someone choses a Ford over Chevy or Canon over Nikon. I like the fact that Canon and Nikon compete. I get a better camera as a result. But if Canon and Nikon had some standard enforced by some arbitrary body in the electronics industry their innovation might be stifled.

Like government legislation, the standards community based in academia and competing vendors, argue a common ground that leave the market and the users hopelessly behind in innovation and progress. Only now with HTML 5 is the standards-based community adopting some form of video plug-in as a standard. With the HTML 5 Standard still in draft as of October 25, 2010 and not adopted, we can only hope it will be soon that they will catch up where Flash and Silverlight have already taken us. But even once officially blessed, HTML 5 will still be behind the latest innovations that Microsoft Silverlight and their competitor Adobe Flash have been able to achieve for end users seeking client server desktop-like functionality in their applications. That does not even factor in media experiences. Couple rich application experience with rich media experience and HTML 5 and the standards-based community is little more than white noise of a child constantly trying to catch up to their parent.

Having been in the software business for almost 20 years, the browser-based applications are only now catching up to where we were with User Experience in Client Server Applications 14 years ago. I still remember in 1998 hearing that browser-based applications were going to solve all our woes in development with their universal deployment model and standards-based HTML implementations. Software developers striving to achieve the same functionality that we had in traditional client server applications takes three times the effort. This is because we have to deal with the ubiquitous versions of “standards-based” browsers, writing lines of JavaScript, factoring in state, round trips, or seeking rich experiences using third party jQuery or vendor plug-ins. Every time, I sit down to architect a web solution, I ask myself the rhetorical question, “This is easier and better than traditional client server development?”. The answer is always no, it is much harder and more costly.

While Microsoft will most certainly adopt the HTML 5 standard, Silverlight isn’t going away. Industry pundits have speculated that because Microsoft has embraced HTML 5 that Microsoft is shifting strategy away from Silverlight. They speculate that because there was little mention of Silverlight this year at the Microsoft Professional Developers Conference that Silverlight has fallen out of favor. A flurry of articles has resulted adding hype and speculation not based in fact.

Microsoft: Our strategy with Silverlight has shifted
HTML5 video is winning over the Web
Microsoft favoring HTML5 over Silverlight
Ballmer Pushes Azure, HTML 5, Phones at PDC

My take is that this is much to do about nothing, a Tempest in a teapot. Silverlight, and to be fair Flash, is far beyond anything HTML 5 will achieve in User Experience, if it ever gets ratified. I see it much as Tim Huckaby does in his article on DevProConnections titled: HTML 5 and the Future of Silverlight. The problem comes down to explaining Silverlight as a choice in solution architecture to a CIO/CTO. In my opinion, the hysteria created by technology industry pundits has muddied the water with hype, which has gained traction because of the popularity and innovation of the Apple iPad. Apple’s decision to push HTML 5 and not support browser plug-ins has given the HTML 5 argument credence. But considering the iPad is really a consumer device and not really an enterprise device it makes this a baseless argument. Still, as solution architects we will be answering this question. Hopefully hype will not win.

Don’t look for Silverlight to go away anytime soon and don’t expect the HTML 5 Standard to get ratified anytime soon. Browser vendors will adopt HTML 5, but I would look for “almost HTML 5 compliant browsers” as the market will demand the Silverlight and Flash experience in the browser.